Results for search of category: Technology

FAANGs can bite you

We re-iterate our call to take profits in US Tech. We have downgraded Communications to neutral this week and we already have Google/Alphabet as an underweight. The Tech sector broke down through an important technical signal in late August and is now accelerating towards a downgrade. Leading stocks like Microsoft have been downgraded and only Apple looks robust at current levels. The majority of the large stocks we cover have lower scores than they did at the end of summer.  [Read More... ]

Two Red Flags from China

China’s stock market is always subject to official intervention, so the signals need to be interpreted carefully. However, there are two new red flags in our equity sector model, relating to Technology and Financials. Technology has suddenly started to deteriorate, which has historically been a good lead indicator for the US Tech sector. Financials are heading for a multi-year low relative to the index, which could have important implications for China’s FX policy regime.   [Read More... ]

Party Like It’s 1999

The US Tech sector has just flashed an important warning signal. Our recommended weighting has just dropped below its 52-week moving average. This has happened seven times in the last 25 years and the result is always a significant reduction in exposure. Six times out of seven, the sector has not bottomed until it was deep in underweight territory.  [Read More... ]

One Disease; Three Themes

Three interesting ideas emerge from our regular reports. First, the volatility shock will almost certainly be as bad as 2008. Second, we believe that a long Technology /short Energy trade will have a positive pay-off no matter whether equity markets rise or fall. Third, our models are increasing exposure to EM Equities. We recognise this is a contrarian trade, but it is well-supported by our process and doesn’t depend on one or two countries.  [Read More... ]

Chairman Mao is Coming to Dinner

Apple and Microsoft both look significantly overbought relative to US equities. Other US stocks with similar scores have underperformed by about 15% over the next three months. If this happens to the two largest stocks in the index, US equities will probably fall.  [Read More... ]

Barbell

Equity investors have decided to revisit a strategy first utilised during the secular stagnation debate of 2015 and early 2016. In the US and Europe, they are buying low beta defensives in case there is a recession and paying a premium for stocks with strong secular growth, in case there isn’t. There is very little active weight in the rest of their portfolios. It’s a Barbell strategy, which works while we wait for clarity from the US results season.  [Read More... ]

Whistle-Stop Tour

We finally have the bounce in risk assets that we expected in the run-up to Christmas, but it is not yet strong enough to break any of the downtrends that developed earlier in Q4. We are at maximum underweight in all our equity vs bond models and similar levels of risk aversion apply in our fixed income and equity sector models. The only exception is that we have an overweight on Emerging Markets in our global equity model and may be about to downgrade the US to underweight.  [Read More... ]

Straws in the Wind

Forecasting with precision all the components of a bear market is very difficult. Observing the increasing number of signals which point in that direction is much easier. These range from US high yield to Eurozone government bonds and US and European equity strategy. It’s not all bad news. There are some positives, such as the potential for a surprise in UK Equities, and a message to buy duration in US Treasuries. However, the overall message from these straws in the wind is very powerful.  [Read More... ]


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