Results for search of category: Japan

Prices Move Before the News

One of the great virtues of our process is that it is sensitive enough to identify sudden changes in the relationship between risk and return, which have no apparent justification in real life – until the news story which prompted them finally breaks. We have just had a classic example of this with the resignation of Prime Minister Abe, which was announced in late August, eight weeks after our weighting in Japan was suddenly reduced. There is always an explanation, even if you don’t what it is, and this note highlights ten other recent moves at sector or country level, which we think are only partially explained.  [Read More... ]

Lessons from a Fast Market

Yesterday’s sell-off was so brutal that it probably marks the start of a different regime in equity markets. We are out of Phase 1 of the recovery and into a second more sceptical and nervous regime. Both the US and the UK broke of out the uptrends in our daily indicator that have been in place since March. The technical situation is better in the Eurozone and Japan, while the level of financial repression is China so severe, in our view, that the indicator has lost most of its signalling power.  [Read More... ]

Asia: First In, First Out

The recent volatility shock is as big as the one in the middle of the GFC and it isn’t over yet. It has also happened three times faster, in three weeks rather than nine. Fear is inevitable, but the are some interesting opportunities, especially in Asia. Countries like Taiwan and South Korea have managed the corona virus better than the US or Europe, while China is already recovering. If you wait for the bounce in the West, you may miss it in the East.  [Read More... ]

The Forgotten Country

Behind the US, Japanese equities have the second-highest, risk-adjusted returns over the last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. Over the last five years, they have generated the fastest EBIT and dividend growth. They have the lowest pay-out ratio of the major regions (therefore most potential for growth). They have been our preferred equity region since early October and, as of this week, are ranked #1 in our combined asset allocation model.  [Read More... ]

Where Have All the Leaders Gone?

Two weeks ago, we had the lowest number of net buying opportunities for individual countries since May 2000. It’s hard to be bullish about global equities as an asset class when there are so few leaders. Japan is one of just three countries which look attractive on our system, but nobody seems to care.  [Read More... ]

Six Sector Ideas

Where to look in advance of the Q3 results season. The macro picture is confused. Our last note argued that we are in the late late-cycle for equities, but we could go on like this for months and there are no new developments to prove or disprove this view. So, our focus shifts to sector selection. We highlight six sector ideas – one from each region we cover – where we think there is potential for a major upgrade or downgrade in the near future.  [Read More... ]

Catch-22 and Japan’s response

If investors want to prevent the negative effects that a trade war between the US and China could have on US Equities, they may be forced to sell US Equities. This may be one of the few ways they have of getting President Trump’s attention. Our models are at - or very close to - maximum underweight in equities. If there is a storm coming, Japan may have an important policy tool to mitigate some of the damage.  [Read More... ]

Time for Another Look

We have two clear signals that investors – both international and domestic – should take another look at Japanese equities. Our argument is that Japan has better momentum and less risk than other regions, apart from the US where we are maxed out.  [Read More... ]


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