Buying Dips & Selling Bounces

Friday, June 26th, 2020   Categories: Global Equities, Market Timing, Tail Risk

What works and what doesn’t

Given the likelihood of a second wave of the pandemic at some stage during the rest of this year, we have gone back through 25 years of data in over 40 countries, to see if there are any lessons about what to do in the immediate aftermath of a very bad sell-off. We find that buying the dip is not always a successful strategy and certainly not as successful as selling the bounce. By far the best strategy is avoiding the really bad weeks completely, which is easier said than done. The uplift from doing this is so significant that it dwarfs any other strategy. Even partial success is worth the effort – and the risk of missing out.