Harlyn Research at Global Independent Research Conference

Simon Goodfellow, Managing Partner of Harlyn Research LLP, will present at the 4th Global Independent Research Conference in London on March 1st, 2018.
Simon will participate in a panel discussing Global Sector Allocation.
For the conference, we have published a ‘micro’ website, which can be accessed at http://researchforinvestors.harlynresearch.com/

Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • Delivery, not Potential
  • Wednesday, March 21st, 2018
  • European equities need some momentum soon. Equities in the Eurozone and the UK are not delivering the same returns as the US. This holds true for most sectors as well as the top-level index, Part of the problem stems from the weak dollar, but as most investors did not expect this, they find it hard to forecast the turn. Sooner or later investors will have to respond to this problem.

  • One of Us Is Wrong
  • Wednesday, March 14th, 2018
  • Defensive underweight contradicts top-down view. Our models show a clear contradiction between the neutral recommendation for European equities vs fixed income and the all-time record underweight in defensives, which we discussed two weeks ago. There is normally a good correlation between a bearish view on equities and defensives, but over the last year this has turned negative in Europe. The US and Japan do not share this problem. It’s one that Europe needs to resolve.

  • Records Are There to Be Broken
  • Wednesday, February 28th, 2018
  • Defensive underweight lasts a long time already. Underweight Defensives is such a consensus call that nobody really bothers to argue the reasons for it any longer. In Europe, our underweight position on Telecom, Utilities, Staples and Healthcare is the biggest it has ever been. The persistence of this underweight is well on the way to challenging the record for any combination of sectors. Consensus is right for now, but everything changes in the end.

  • A Warning from Japan
  • Wednesday, February 21st, 2018
  • Japan has had a good run at the top of our regional equity model. A shift in risk appetite like the one earlier this month normally implies a change in regional leadership. The yen has broken up through an important trend against the dollar and our Japanese equity sector model is reducing the underweight on defensives, unlike any other developed market. Four good reasons why we expect to downgrade Japan to neutral soon.