Harlyn Research at Global Independent Research Conference

Simon Goodfellow, Managing Partner of Harlyn Research LLP, will present at the 4th Global Independent Research Conference in London on March 1st, 2018.
Simon will participate in a panel discussing Global Sector Allocation.
For the conference, we have published a ‘micro’ website, which can be accessed at http://researchforinvestors.harlynresearch.com/

Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • Is Energy Un-Investable?
  • Friday, November 8th, 2019
  • Nobody likes the Energy sector. On a global basis the current sell-off is as bad as all the other major declines, apart from 2014. The difference is that oil prices are much more stable now than they were then. The medium-term challenges (ESG agenda, electric cars, balance sheet distress) are all well-known, but we would be really surprised if the sector wasn’t rated overweight again within the next two years – any maybe sooner.

  • Equal and Opposite Signals
  • Friday, October 25th, 2019
  • The macro picture remains confused, so we are reduced to talking about signals which may appear in the near future. On present trends, we expect EM Equities to overtake their moving average and EM Bonds to drop below theirs. Both are measured relative to the equity and fixed income models as appropriate. At first, the switching opportunity would be for EM specialists, but it may develop wider significance.

  • New Risk Conditions Indices
  • Friday, October 11th, 2019
  • This week we introduce four new risk conditions indices covering the equity and government bond markets of selected emerging market and developed countries. They highlight the fact that the relationship between equity and bond volatility is abnormal, given their recent relative performance.

  • Six Sector Ideas
  • Friday, September 27th, 2019
  • Where to look in advance of the Q3 results season. The macro picture is confused. Our last note argued that we are in the late late-cycle for equities, but we could go on like this for months and there are no new developments to prove or disprove this view. So, our focus shifts to sector selection. We highlight six sector ideas – one from each region we cover – where we think there is potential for a major upgrade or downgrade in the near future.