Harlyn Research at Global Independent Research Conference

Simon Goodfellow, Managing Partner of Harlyn Research LLP, will present at the 4th Global Independent Research Conference in London on March 1st, 2018.
Simon will participate in a panel discussing Global Sector Allocation.
For the conference, we have published a ‘micro’ website, which can be accessed at http://researchforinvestors.harlynresearch.com/

Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • New Risk Conditions Indices
  • Friday, October 11th, 2019
  • This week we introduce four new risk conditions indices covering the equity and government bond markets of selected emerging market and developed countries. They highlight the fact that the relationship between equity and bond volatility is abnormal, given their recent relative performance.

  • Six Sector Ideas
  • Friday, September 27th, 2019
  • Where to look in advance of the Q3 results season. The macro picture is confused. Our last note argued that we are in the late late-cycle for equities, but we could go on like this for months and there are no new developments to prove or disprove this view. So, our focus shifts to sector selection. We highlight six sector ideas – one from each region we cover – where we think there is potential for a major upgrade or downgrade in the near future.

  • Hyper-stability is destabilizing
  • Thursday, September 12th, 2019
  • This week has seen a sudden upsurge in factor rotation at the individual stock level in the US. It may be too soon to call this a quant crash and we would be wary of attributing this to some macro-economic story, like a change in Treasury yields. The best explanation may be that it was so darn quiet immediately beforehand – something which our equity sector models show very clearly.

  • Catch-22 and Japan’s response
  • Thursday, August 29th, 2019
  • If investors want to prevent the negative effects that a trade war between the US and China could have on US Equities, they may be forced to sell US Equities. This may be one of the few ways they have of getting President Trump’s attention. Our models are at – or very close to – maximum underweight in equities. If there is a storm coming, Japan may have an important policy tool to mitigate some of the damage.