Harlyn Research at Global Independent Research Conference

Simon Goodfellow, Managing Partner of Harlyn Research LLP, will present at the 4th Global Independent Research Conference in London on March 1st, 2018.
Simon will participate in a panel discussing Global Sector Allocation.
For the conference, we have published a ‘micro’ website, which can be accessed at http://researchforinvestors.harlynresearch.com/

Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • In Search of Fresh Inspiration
  • Friday, February 21st, 2020
  • In Q3 2019 a group of housebuilders, utilities and dollar-sensitive industrials began to outperform the UK index on hopes that the Conservatives would win a general election. This created a powerful long momentum effect, but our analysis says that we are now close to maximum exposure. For the Boris trade to become more powerful, we need greater consensus on which stocks to underweight/short.

  • Chairman Mao is Coming to Dinner
  • Friday, February 7th, 2020
  • Apple and Microsoft both look significantly overbought relative to US equities. Other US stocks with similar scores have underperformed by about 15% over the next three months. If this happens to the two largest stocks in the index, US equities will probably fall.

  • Two Week Warning
  • Friday, January 24th, 2020
  • Our standard PRATER process is well-correlated with the subsequent performance of equities vs bonds. However, the relationship decays when we get close to extremes. Here, we can use a modified RSI approach to estimate the potential for mean reversion. Our 25-year data set indicates that equities are particularly vulnerable when they have been accelerating too hard (RSI) in relation to the speed at which they are travelling relative to bonds (PRATER). Presently, they are accelerating too hard, but the difference is not yet critical. At current progress, global equities will enter the danger zone in about two weeks, after which the probability of a high single-digit correction vs bonds rises sharply.

  • The Meaning of Boris
  • Friday, January 10th, 2020
  • The result of the UK election has made the country more attractive to international equity investors, but not to domestic investors, except in the sense that equities everywhere have become more attractive relative to fixed income. We do have substantial overweight positions in cyclical sectors like Industrials, but these are funded by underweights in other cyclical sectors like Materials. We expect to upgrade Small Caps to overweight in the near future, but we have already done so in Japan and the Eurozone. It’s all a bit underwhelming. But our models are clear that if you think that the UK will prosper outside the EU, you should buy Ireland.