Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochure

Please click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • Time for Some Bottom-Fishing
  • Friday, November 26th, 2021
  • We spend a lot of our time dissuading clients from going bottom-fishing, mainly because it doesn’t work very well. But there are times when we may need to do it to protect ourselves from the risk of being underweight a sector or country which rallies very fast. This week we highlight a combination of charts (EM Equities and China vs the World and Chinese Technology vs China) which have all sent recent signals suggesting that we may need to close our underweight positions in a hurry. There is a risk/opportunity that Chinese Technology could lead sharp and unexpected rally in EM Equities.

  • The Roundabout Accelerates
  • Friday, November 12th, 2021
  • We expect global equities to start rotating faster than usual on a country/regional basis. We discuss the technical rationale in some detail, but the important message is that this not about the recent winners such as the US and India, or the losers like China and Korea, but all the others, which are somewhere in the middle. There are several European countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, which are at risk of dropping down the ranking, while selected EM countries in Asia and Latin America could benefit. If our analysis is correct, this should happen before Christmas.

  • Adding REITs to the Mix
  • Friday, October 29th, 2021
  • There is lots of client interest in alternative asset classes, mainly because bonds no longer provide enough income and because they are structurally vulnerable to inflation. This week, we demonstrate this it is possible to generate superior long-term returns by adding REITs to an actively managed portfolio of equities and bonds. The key messages are (1) that the combined portfolio needs to be actively and systematically traded and (2) that exposure to REITs must be properly constrained in order to avoid the savage drawdowns that are characteristic of this asset class. We also note that US REITs have performed very strongly this year, so now may not be the time to start this strategy.

  • Currency First is Second Best
  • Friday, October 15th, 2021
  • Clients often ask whether they should incorporate a currency view into their asset allocation process, to which the short answer is No. Although we don’t normally publish it, we have a model which prioritises currency selection over asset class selection. There are times when it outperforms our standard model (and now is one of them), but over the long run it produces lower returns, with higher volatility and deeper and longer drawdowns. Two conditions are required for the Currency-First model to outperform – a global bull market in risk assets and easy monetary policy in the US. Neither one, on its own, is sufficient. If you believe the latest FOMC minutes, our standard