Harlyn Research at Global Independent Research Conference

Simon Goodfellow, Managing Partner of Harlyn Research LLP, will present at the 4th Global Independent Research Conference in London on March 1st, 2018.
Simon will participate in a panel discussing Global Sector Allocation.
For the conference, we have published a ‘micro’ website, which can be accessed at http://researchforinvestors.harlynresearch.com/

Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • Re-Configuring the S&P Sectors
  • Friday, May 29th, 2020
  • Well-designed sectors make portfolio management easier, but that means that the definitions need to be reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. We believe we have arrived at that moment in the US. We propose splitting the Tech sector into two, combining Materials with Industrials and Energy with Utilities. We find that it is easier to generate systematic outperformance using the new definitions.

  • No Read Across in EM
  • Friday, May 15th, 2020
  • Concerns about the credit quality of EM Bonds are rising. Some of the countries often cited are frontier, rather than emerging markets, but the concerns are well-founded. For us, the key difference from other bond categories is that the Fed won’t be buying them. We don’t think there is a read-across to EM Equities, which are now less volatile than the US, mainly because the major Asian economies have dealt with the virus better.

  • No Crystal Ball
  • Friday, May 1st, 2020
  • We cannot hope to forecast all the social and economic consequences of the pandemic, but we can construct a model which allows us to observe to their impact on equities in real-time. Our new daily models are based on the same process as our weekly models. They outperformed during three similar crises in 1998, 2002 and 2008. They also suggest that US Equities will not regain their recent highs before the model reaches a point where previous mid-crisis rallies have come to an end.

  • Income in Dollars, Please
  • Friday, April 17th, 2020
  • Generating an adequate income from euro-denominated bonds is next to impossible, so investors should abandon the attempt. They should embrace currency risk – not try to hedge it away. They should enjoy the fact that US dollar yields are structurally higher than those in the Eurozone. This means owning long-dated Treasuries and dollar-denominated EM sovereign bonds. Finally, they should consider the source currency of their equity dividends and take another look at the Energy sector.